The Loser

Trump, and his candidates, failed in the midterms again.

Hello, Ari here — below is my brand new piece on the increasingly resilient coalition against the MAGA GOP — and why Georgia and the midterms showed Trump to be the loser of another election.

Also, some more people signed up for this newsletter, so welcome! This piece is available to everyone, I reply to some readers through the comments button below… if you want to read all the entries and join the annual zoom call with me, you can always choose to sign up as a full subscriber here:

Thanks for your interest, here’s what I wanted to share with you… 

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The Loser

Sen. Raphael Warnock’s victory in the Georgia runoff completes a remarkable electoral run for Democrats. I don’t say that as some kind of “compliment” — just a reference to the political math.

After literally years of failed pundit predictions and dodgy polling, the talk of a looming “red wave” heading into the midterms was so common, you might think it was a “certainty” given the confidence of the predictions. (This time, they must know something, right?) In late October, The New York Times ran a front page story about Washington:

Brac[ing] for a Red Wave in the House

The article explained how “reality is setting in” for that coming GOP onslaught.   Which never came.

The actual reality is that Democrats beat the historical precedent, where incumbent parties lose badly; and overcame the “mood,” which was indeed sour on the economy, post-covid life, and still tepid about aspects of Biden’s leadership; and overcame another Right wing “narrative” hyping a MAGA resurgence (which can shape reality when that depresses turnout). They also won re-election in every incumbent Senate race, which hadn’t happened in 80 years.

Does that mean the electorate is embracing everything Biden and Democrats are offering?

The evidence suggests not. 

There is more support for Biden than many pundits seem to realize, and clearly the Democratic Senate is seen as a mainstream, popular choice in states where it already held seats. But the larger factor is fairly obvious when you spell it out:

The Republican Party’s fealty to Trump and continued embrace of MAGA Trumpism — even after his losses and now-convicted seditious insurrection — is anathema to many voters.

If Republicans ran a “generic” conservative message against Biden, without, you know, Trump and sinister appeals to canceling elections and authoritarian rule, the data suggests they would have performed better than this. (Again, that makes sense.)

I’m not going to run through all the numbers in this piece. Bush veteran Karl Rove personalized it pretty simply:

“Many of these remarkably weak candidates came courtesy of Donald Trump.”

Mitch McConnell saw the same risk, with his earlier warnings about candidate “quality.” (Think Dr. Oz, Doug Mastriano, Don Bolduc, Adam Laxalt, Kari Lake, Blake Masters, and many others who were defined as much by “Trumpism” as being their own alternative to Biden, and underperformed in numerically winnable races.)

And then… the Georgia race put a messy exclamation point on this trend. 

Messy MAGA

Herschel Walker was an especially troubled version of a Trump-style “celebrity” candidate. 

He lost on the same ticket where the Republican governor won by 7 points. 

Here’s what that means: About 290,000 Georgia citizens went Republican for governor — but couldn’t stomach doing the same for Walker’s Senate bid. (They either went Warnock, or to the third party protest candidate, or left the Senate blank, all of which help Warnock in this kind of tight race.) 

You don’t have to be some expert on the “current Republican mindset” to know that a Georgia citizen voting Republican in 2022 — amidst all this — is a very available vote for a Republican senate candidate. Unless they blow it so thoroughly that they’re not credible.

That was Walker. Obama vet (and Beat guest) Chai Komanduri declared Walker “the last MAGA candidate.” That might have a tint of Democratic hopefulness. But Walker is certainly a high profile, losing Trumpy candidate who can serve as a warning to Republicans — if they have their eyes open.

So Much Winning 

Typically, after a big loss in either party, the leaders take stock.

After Mitt Romney lost to Obama, Republican leaders treated him as an example of what didn’t work. Democratic leaders can be even harsher, sending defeated candidates into a kind of wilderness (Carter, Mondale) and even offering mixed support for nominees with a claim to a larger national mandate than Republican foes who only won via Electoral College math (Gore, Clinton).

Republicans never really faced Trump’s deep unpopularity, however, after his surprising 2016 win. Consider some facts that are so at odds with the “narrative,” they still surprise some politicos:

• Trump has never hit 50% approval during or after his presidency.

• Trump has never won more votes than an opponent.

• Trump has never helped the GOP in a midterm race.

This is not a “close” or complicated political question. 

Associate yourself with someone this unpopular, and you may get less popular. 

This is why politicians seek endorsements from popular people (Oprah, Obama, beloved athletes) and avoid associations with unpopular and divisive people. The midterms reinforced — even in a year tilted towards the GOP — that candidates tightly linked to Trump were more likely to be treated like Trump. And that means being the loser of the race.

Now, after the midterms, the house paper of the Fox News empire, The Wall Street Journal, printed that Trump is the Republican Party’s “biggest loser.” Whether the mathematical reckoning continues, as Trump runs again, is an open question.

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“It’s Everything, Stupid!”

Democratic guru James Carville famously boils elections down, like helping Democrats focus with “It’s the Economy, Stupid.” Sometimes that’s true.

Yet we are living through extraordinarily overheated times, in life and politics. Trump’s presence, like it or not, can be a catch-all for these times. A person’s view on Trump — most people have one — is a huge indicator for their views on other things (race, abortion, democracy, Covid policy). These midterms, and probably elections in the near term, are about many things. How could they not be? 

The Supreme Court gutting Roe after 50 years, the economic disruptions, technology’s impact on politics and how younger people communicate and organize — it’s a lot more than can fit into one Carville maxim. So all those things were at play, too, although best I can tell, they largely reinforced (rather than complicated) the anti-MAGA trend discussed above.

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So those are some of my thoughts after mulling the midterms, and the implications for the possibly choppy waters ahead. The stakes are high, and if you’re reading my newsletter and following the news, you know why. Do you think the midterms will shake up the GOP? 

Is the U.S. better off with two healthy parties that look forward and respect democracy no matter what? Tell me in the comments, I’ll reply to some of you there as always… 

..and thanks for keeping up with my newsletter, I find it a great way to hear from many of you!

P.S. As I’ve mentioned on The Beat, Harper Collins is publishing the official January 6 Committee Report, featuring my foreword with an accounting of Trump’s coup conspiracy. You can order the Report now at this link: