Will "Biden Republicans" Break the Logjam?
Washington's view of bipartisanship is broken
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Welcome back to my newsletter! This new edition digs into politics -- and why Biden is proving popular with Republican voters.
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Ari
Will “Biden Republicans” Break the Logjam and Spark a Realignment?
We are now five months into the Biden presidency. Some of the previous four years have faded away quickly. Washington is calmer. The news is slower.
Then there is the iron partisanship of Republican leaders. It paved the road to the Trump era and continues in even more hardcore form today.
Top Republicans say they “100%” oppose everything Biden is doing, or will think to do. A Republican senator recently out-McConnelled Mitch McConnell by saying he wants to make Biden a “half term” President… whatever that means.
Are “Biden Republicans” the New “Reagan Democrats”?
As Biden pushes for a $2 trillion jobs and infrastructure plan, something else is also happening. Many Republican voters are warming to his domestic policies.
It may be hard to see, because of the way politics is narrated, but there are signs Biden may draw from the GOP in ways that Pres. Reagan once did from the Democratic Party.
American politics shifted when “Reagan Democrats”—people who identified with the Democratic Party but backed key Reagan’s policies—became a force during his presidency.
Now, it's early in Biden's tenure. He does not currently have Reagan’s level of support from the other party. (About one in ten Republicans voted for Biden in 2020, while he drew more crossover support in some key places like Michigan.)
After his first term, Reagan ultimately won over about a quarter of registered Democrats.
The pollster who tracked Reagan Democrats, Stanley Greenberg, says supporting a president in the opposing party goes beyond the leader’s personal appeal (which many felt Reagan had). His interviews with Reagan Democrats found many flocked to Reagan after deciding that their own party leaders
“seemed to care more about equal rights and abortion than about mortgage payments and crime.”
Today, Greenberg sees a similar opening for Biden. The idea is that partisan GOP leaders are abandoning economic issues their voters care about.
This sounds simple because it is. It’s basically Politics 101.
When incumbent party leaders lose step with their own voters, they are more vulnerable to challenges.
And GOP leaders who say they “oppose everything” Biden does are now opposing their constituents:
Polls from Morning Consult suggest 60% of Republicans supported Biden’s COVID relief package.
Republicans support more federal spending in many areas according to Pew Research, including on education, veterans’ benefits, and rebuilding highways and bridges.
One out of five Republican voters are already backing Biden's new infrastructure bill.
That’s just reality. It may be obscured by a media that focuses on conflict, or only defines “bipartisanship” by politicians in Washington, and not actual voters. But there is a growing bipartisan coalition of voters backing Bidenism.
If these trends continue, however, it could portend more change in elections to come. Here’s the thing about those Reagan Democrats: Some kept voting Republican, and eventually became Republicans. Will that happen for Biden?
This headline suggests one possibility:
“Democrats lead Republicans by nine points in party ID… the largest gap Gallup has measured since 2012”
More people are now identifying as Democrats than anytime in the last decade, per recent Gallup polling.
So while it is too early to know if a realignment is coming, there are some seeds for it: A growing share of voters who vote Democratic and identify as Democrats; a President who is seen as moderate and welcomes conservative support; a Republican Party leadership that puts partisan obstruction above stimulus checks and economic support for its constituents—who increasingly back part of the other party’s White House agenda.
All that is brewing, and we’re just five months into this new era… wherever it leads.
Do you think GOP voters’ support for spending will change any minds in Congress? Do you think the D.C. media has missed this story? Tell me in the comments and I’ll try to respond to some:
No, I don't think GOP voter's support will change the minds of Republican leaders in Congress. They have been focused more on their own agenda than they have with what their constituents want and need. Times are also very different than the 80s. Less partisan and those in Congress attempted to work for their constituents. They probably also didn't go against their own ideas and needs, just so the other party didn't get any wins. My thought of what half term means is the GOP are trying to take back Congress and halt any additional progress from President Biden. We can't let them take back control. In my opinion DC media misses a lot of stories, especially if they aren't sexy enough. They have to get out of the habit of chasing drama.
Hi Ari. I am convinced that the GOP on Capitol Hill does not care about the American. They only care about the dark-money and staying in power. Personally, I am sick of corrupt politicians.